EUR/USD Strategy - Economic and Policy Divergence, Dollar Likely to Remain Strong

Fundamental Analysis:

Last Friday, the Eurozone and the UK November Manufacturing and Services PMIs were below expectations, while the U.S. November S&P Global Services and Manufacturing PMIs showed growth, highlighting the continued strength of the U.S. economy. In terms of monetary policy, strong economic data and potential tariff impacts have led to a continued downward revision of expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts. In contrast, there is greater room for further easing by the European and UK central banks, which are less resilient to risks. This suggests that the dollar is likely to remain strong in the short term, and any rebound in non-U.S. currencies should be viewed cautiously.

Technical Analysis:
On the hourly EUR/USD chart, the trend shows signs of a rebound but has yet to break above prior resistance, making it premature to confirm a bullish trend. If the resistance remains unbroken, the trend may have room for downward correction. Therefore, a short-sell strategy is recommended.

Suggested trade: Short at 1.0487

Stop-loss: Above 1.0545 Target: 1.0397-1.0434

Support level: 1.0397 Resistance level: 1.0487

Trading involves risks. The recommendations are not guaranteed for profit. Investors should evaluate their own capital and position management.