AUD/USD Strategy - Potential Shift in Fed's Stance, Market Focuses on Policy Outlook

Fundamental Analysis:
The Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) recent minutes indicate no rush to shift toward a dovish policy, with its hawkish stance providing support for the Australian dollar. However, the probability of a December rate cut by the Federal Reserve has dropped to 54%, significantly lower than last week's 83%, reflecting investor concerns over rising inflation. This supports the US dollar and limits the gains of non-USD currencies. Additionally, internal disagreements may be emerging within the Fed, as evidenced by conflicting statements from two board members yesterday: Bowman expressed concerns over inflation risks, while Cook believed that price pressures would continue to ease. These developments are causing investors to revise their expectations, alongside market bets that Trump's policies could reignite inflation, potentially slowing the Fed's rate-cutting pace in the future.

Technical Analysis:
The 15-minute AUD/USD chart shows prices within an ascending channel, with the possibility of a correction to the demand zone to rebuild momentum. Long positions can be entered at the demand zone, with stop losses set below the bottom of the range and targets set at the top of the channel or the recent high.


Trading Suggestion:
Consider going long at 0.64977 or better, with a stop loss below 0.64841 and a target of 0.65113.
Support Level: 0.64841 Resistance Level: 0.65183

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