Key Market Trends This Week

Stock Market & Gold Analysis:

1. Triple Witching Day & Tariff Threats:
   Last Friday was a Triple Witching Day, and the market was dragged down by tariff threats and weak corporate earnings. The market opened lower but rebounded in the last 10 minutes before closing. FedEx and NIKE stocks underperformed.

2. Trump’s Flexible Tariff Policies:
   Trump stated that tariff measures will remain flexible, particularly concerning China. The reciprocal tariffs set to take effect on April 2 are now a key market focus.

3. U.S.-China Trade Talks & Economic Policy:
   High-level U.S.-China trade talks are expected this week, with U.S. trade representatives meeting Chinese officials.

Market Outlook:
Although the stock market rebounded at the close, this movement was largely driven by quarter-end portfolio rebalancing and lacks substantial support. The next market focus will be on the economic impact of U.S. tariff policies. Continued uncertainty may limit Federal Reserve policy changes. If economic data suggests a recession, U.S. stocks may face downward pressure, while gold could benefit from safe-haven demand.

Crude Oil Market:

1. Israel-Gaza Conflict Intensifies:
   Israel escalated attacks on Gaza, aiming to force Hamas to release hostages.

2. U.S. Sanctions on Iran:
   The U.S. government announced new sanctions on Iran and imposed fines on Chinese refiners purchasing Iranian crude oil.

3. OPEC Production Cuts:
   OPEC announced that starting April 1, it will gradually reduce voluntary production cuts to 2.2 million barrels per day.

Market Outlook:
While escalating geopolitical tensions and OPEC’s flexible approach to production cuts could theoretically support oil prices, demand concerns—especially in light of tariff-related trade tensions—create a mixed fundamental outlook. In the short term, oil prices are likely to remain volatile.

Forex Market:

1. France Pushes EU to Retaliate Against U.S. Tariffs:
   France urges the EU to use the strongest Anti-Coercion Instrument (ACI) against U.S. tariff threats. Potential countermeasures include punitive tariffs, import/export controls, investment restrictions, or public procurement bans, though the likelihood of implementation remains low for now.

2. Germany's Fiscal Reforms & Infrastructure Plans:
   Germany’s new fiscal reforms and infrastructure investment plans sparked profit-taking in the euro.

3. Central Bank Decisions:
   The Fed, BOJ, and BOE all kept interest rates unchanged last week, signaling a wait-and-see approach regarding their economies.

Market Outlook:
As the Central Bank Super Week concludes, investor focus shifts back to trade developments. Given the U.S.’s stronger economic resilience, the dollar may see continued support, which could pressure other currencies.

Key Economic Data :

Monday, March 24, 2025 (GMT+8)

• 16:15 🇫🇷 France Manufacturing PMI (March, Preliminary)

• 16:30 🇫🇷 France Services PMI (March, Preliminary)

• 17:00 🇪🇺 Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (March, Preliminary)

• 17:30 🇬🇧 UK Manufacturing & Services PMI (March, Preliminary)

• 21:45 🇺🇸 U.S. S&P Global Manufacturing & Services PMI (March, Preliminary)

(If the U.S. PMI remains strong, it may put pressure on most currencies.)

Tuesday, March 25, 2025 (GMT+8)

• 02:00 🇬🇧 BOE Governor Andrew Bailey’s Speech
  (Bailey is expected to highlight major uncertainties in future policy decisions, indicating no urgency for adjustments in the short term.)