USOIL Strategy - China's GDP Growth Forecast Downgraded, Bearish Outlook for Oil Demand

Fundamental Analysis:

Although OPEC+ has extended its production cut measures until the end of the first quarter next year, the market has already priced in this expectation. The oversupply situation remains unchanged, keeping oil prices weak. Fitch Ratings recently downgraded China’s GDP growth forecast for the next two years. As a major oil consumer, China's pessimistic economic outlook is likely to keep oil prices under pressure. Therefore, crude oil is suitable for short-selling strategies at higher prices.

Technical Analysis:

On the 1-hour chart, highs and lows are trending downward, indicating a bearish trend. The latest 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the current downtrend theoretically provides resistance, making it a suitable point to open short positions. If the price breaks above the previous high, it may signal a trend reversal, requiring stop-loss activation for short positions. Profit-taking should be considered near the previous low, as previous declines were halted at that level.

Trading Recommendation:

Short USOIL above $68.089, with a stop-loss at $68.888 and a target price of $66.797. (Please calculate the spread accordingly.)

Support Level: $66.797

Resistance Level: $68.888

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