USD/JPY Strategy - Complex Fundamentals Lead to Repeated Fluctuations

Fundamental Analysis:

Last Friday, Trump announced the nomination of Bessent as Treasury Secretary. Investors expect that under Bessent’s leadership, the US government’s fiscal policies may become more disciplined, potentially leading to a decline in US bond yields and the dollar. However, since Bessent has also publicly supported tariffs and a strong dollar, it is still uncertain whether the dollar will enter a downward trend.

On the yen side, recent statements from Japanese officials indicate increasing concern about excessive yen depreciation, suggesting a rising likelihood of government intervention. Overall, the fundamentals for USD/JPY are mixed, and the trend is expected to remain volatile.

Technical Analysis:

The 1-hour chart for USD/JPY shows that although the trend has not broken the previous low, lower highs continue to form, indicating increasing selling pressure. If subsequent rebounds fail to break the previous resistance, the trend may continue to correct downward. Therefore, short-term selling is recommended.

Trade Recommendation:

Short at 154.29

Stop loss above 154.72 Target: 152.85-153.28

Support Level: 153.28 Resistance Level: 154.29

Trading involves risks. Recommendations are not guarantees of profit. Investors should evaluate their own capital and position management.