Gold Price Analysis: Middle East Tensions Drive Safe-Haven Demand
As Middle East tensions escalate in June 2025, gold prices reach $3,451 per ounce, approaching the historic high of $3,500.
Recent Market Background: Middle East Tensions Escalate
In June 2025, tensions in the Middle East region escalated once again. Israel's airstrikes on Iran raised market concerns about the expansion of regional conflicts. Particularly after Iranian nuclear facilities were attacked, the conflict spread to energy facilities, causing oil prices to soar, which further pushed up inflation expectations while also strengthening market demand for safe-haven assets.
Historical Reference: Relationship Between Geopolitical Events and Gold Prices
1979 Iranian Islamic Revolution
Oil supply disruptions led to soaring inflation, with gold prices rising from $200 per ounce in 1978 to $850 per ounce in 1980.
1990 Gulf War
During the war, safe-haven demand pushed gold prices up by about 20%.
2022 Russia-Ukraine War
At the beginning of the conflict, gold prices once broke through $2,000 per ounce, setting a historical high at that time.
Overall, the impact of geopolitical events on gold is often accompanied by a double overlay of inflation expectations and risk aversion sentiment, which is once again verified under the current Middle East situation.
Recent Views from Financial Institutions
Goldman Sachs
Goldman Sachs reiterates its forecast that continued central bank gold purchases will drive prices to $3,700 per ounce by the end of 2025, potentially reaching $4,000 by mid-2026. The firm believes the escalating Middle East situation will further bolster this trend.
Bank of America
Bank of America anticipates gold prices will surpass $3,800 per ounce within the next 12 months, primarily due to global economic uncertainty compounded by geopolitical risks.
Market Analyst Gao Xiaofeng
Gao Xiaofeng believes the current highly sensitive Middle East situation has led to elevated market risk aversion, making the bullish trend for gold evident. He expects gold prices to continue their upward trajectory in the short term, potentially touching $3,500 or even higher.
Gold Price Trend Forecast for the Next 2 Months
Continue to Rise in the Short Term
If the Middle East situation further deteriorates, especially if the conflict extends to energy supply chains, gold prices may break through $3,500 per ounce and even move towards $3,700.
Limited by Fed Policy in the Medium Term
If the Federal Reserve maintains a hawkish stance (raising interest rates or maintaining high interest rates) due to inflationary pressures, it may limit the rise in gold prices.
Bullish in the Long Term
Continued gold purchasing behavior by central banks and a high inflation environment will provide strong support for gold prices.
