AUD/USD Strategy - Non-Farm Payroll and Employment Data in Focus, AUD/USD Declines Again

Fundamental Analysis:

Yesterday, U.S. initial jobless claims exceeded expectations, but continuing claims decreased again, indicating mixed employment data. This keeps the market optimistic about a potential rate cut in December, slowing the USD's rally and giving non-USD currencies some breathing room. However, tonight's release of more critical employment data, including non-farm payrolls and unemployment rates, could shift the outlook. Last month, job numbers were negatively affected by hurricanes and strikes, but with these risks subsiding, employment figures are expected to return to normal levels, likely exceeding expectations. While this may not directly influence a December rate cut, it could slow the pace of Fed rate cuts, strengthening the USD and increasing the likelihood of a decline in non-USD currencies.

Technical Analysis:

On the 1-hour chart, AUD/USD briefly broke resistance but quickly fell back below the previous resistance level after consecutive bearish candles. This suggests a false breakout, with moving averages aligning in a bearish formation due to the weakening trend. This indicates a strong bearish bias. It is recommended to adopt a bearish view and consider short positions around the short-term resistance of 0.6445, targeting 0.6395, with a stop loss at 0.6480.

Trading Recommendations:

Sell Entry: Around 0.6445 with light positions.

Target Price: 0.6395 Stop Loss: 0.6480

Support Level: 0.6395 Resistance Level: 0.6445

Disclaimer: The above content is for reference only and does not represent the platform's stance. Stick to your own strategy and apply appropriate risk management.