US Oil Strategy - Waiting for OPEC+ Meeting, Oil Prices Show Weakness

Fundamental Analysis:

Recently, conflicts in the Middle East and the Russia-Ukraine war seem to be progressing toward ceasefires, reducing geopolitical risks. This has caused US oil prices to weaken temporarily as tensions ease. However, past experiences suggest that post-negotiation skirmishes may still occur. It’s too early to be overly optimistic about a definitive end to the wars, so continued monitoring of these conflicts is necessary.

Additionally, last week’s OPEC+ meeting was postponed to this Thursday, mainly due to disagreements over extending the production cut agreement and how to allocate the cut quotas. There have also been reports of plans to gradually cancel the production cuts, which has led the market to anticipate that the meeting's delay is aimed at achieving this cancellation. If true, the restoration of oil supply would maintain the downward pressure on oil prices.

Technical Analysis:

On the US oil hourly chart, after facing resistance, prices have resumed their downward trend, breaking below the previous low. The moving averages have shifted into a bearish alignment, indicating a bearish trend. However, the KD indicator shows a golden cross signal, suggesting a potential short-term rebound. Despite this, it's advised not to enter short-term long positions during bearish conditions. Instead, wait for a rebound to the resistance level of 68.30 to enter a light short position, with a target of 66.70 and a stop loss at 69.30.

Trading Recommendation:

Action: Wait for a rebound to the resistance level of 68.30 to enter a light short position.

Target: 66.70. Stop Loss: 69.30.

Support Level: 66.70. Resistance Level: 68.30.